According to the analysis of the hottest instituti

2022-08-23
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Many institutions believe that the overall credit is tight in the second half of the year

many institutions believe that the overall credit is tight in the second half of the year

China Construction machinery information

the greater the load, the more serious the oil leakage phenomenon

Guide: the report released by the central bank a few days ago shows that the total amount of social financing in the first half of 2011 was 7.76 trillion yuan, and the total amount of new social financing in the second quarter was 3.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 620billion yuan month on month and 62.2 billion yuan year on year. Accordingly, a number of institutional analysis reports believe that monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and new letters were added. 1. According to the technical requirements of various springs, elastomers and elastic components

according to the report released by the central bank a few days ago, the total amount of social financing in the first half of 2011 was 7.76 trillion yuan, and the total amount of new social financing in the second quarter was 3.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 620 billion yuan month on month and 62.2 billion yuan year on year. According to the analysis report of many institutions, the monetary policy continued to tighten in the first half of the year, and the new credit generally showed a downward trend; In the second half of the year, the overall trend of credit supply continued to be tight, with new loans of about 500billion yuan in July

Bank of communications financial researchers said that the new loans in July were about 500billion yuan, which is more likely to be exceeded. The construction of affordable housing began in the second half of the year, and credit support is needed. The new loans from January to June in the first half of the year were 1040 billion yuan, 535.6 billion yuan, 679.4 billion yuan, 739.6 billion yuan, 551.6 billion yuan and 633.9 billion yuan respectively. The total amount of new loans in the first half of the year was 41801 trillion yuan, and there was at least 3 trillion yuan in the second half of the year. According to this calculation, the average monthly new loans were at least 500 billion yuan

in the second half of the year, under the complex situation that economic growth has slowed down but will not decline significantly, and price increases have gradually fallen back, but inflationary pressure is still large, the main task of macro-control will be to balance the relationship between "lowering prices" and "maintaining growth", and monetary policy will maintain the overall tone of "moderation", according to the report of the financial research center of jiaomufen gaotiantong bank. The report predicts that the overall credit supply will continue to be tight, credit growth will continue to fall steadily, and new loans will be added throughout the year 3 trillion, and the growth rate of loan balance at the end of the year was 14 2%. The pace of policy tightening slowed down in the second half of the year, but the possibility of reducing or even moderately accelerating the pace of local credit supply for small and medium-sized enterprises and affordable housing cannot be ruled out

in addition, the report predicts that the frequency of the adjustment of the reserve ratio will significantly slow down in the second half of the year, and may be increased times within the year, 0.5 percentage points each time

the macroeconomic report released by Guosen Securities also said that the new liquidity in the second half of 2011 will be lower than that in the first half of 2011, and the pressure on the central bank to recover funds will be greatly reduced. It is expected that the monetary policy will be moderately fine tuned in the second half of 2011, one of which is to suspend the "monthly benchmark"

through the tightening monetary policy regulation in the first half of this year, the growth rate of money and credit has fallen, but the domestic inflationary pressure is still great. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, CPI rose 6.4% year-on-year in June, and the industry is generally expected to continue to operate at a high level in July and August. The macro-control in the second half of the year may be from the perspective of the total amount of social financing

Guotai Junan recently released research report predicts that the total amount of new social financing in the third quarter of 2011 was 3.34 trillion yuan. In terms of cost performance, the growth rate of total social financing will further drop to about 22.5%, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter will further drop to about 20%

Guotai Junan believed that the decrease in the total amount of new social financing in the second quarter was mainly due to the decline in bank loans and bond financing; The year-on-year decrease was mainly due to the sharp decline in bond financing. In terms of the proportion of each part, the proportion of on balance sheet and off balance sheet loans reached 59.3% and 28.9% respectively in the second quarter, up from the first quarter and the same period last year; While bond financing accounted for only 5.7%, significantly lower than the level in the first quarter and the same period last year, and the proportion of stocks and other financing methods changed little

in addition, researchers from the financial research center of Bank of communications predict that by the end of 2011, M2 and M1 will increase by about 15.5% and 14% year-on-year respectively. Considering that the economic growth slows down in the second half of the year and the stock market will improve, it is difficult to have a sharp rise. It is expected that the "positive scissors difference" between M2 and M1 will continue, and the "reverse scissors difference" will be difficult to reappear in the short term

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